{
  "development_only": true,
  "engine_commit": "85bf4e8edfff0c3524ca5c33d295a8d23c9efcdb",
  "evidence": {
    "label": "Deterministic outcomes saved during export; not model evaluations.",
    "month": 8,
    "packet": {
      "cutoff_month": 8,
      "development_only": true,
      "episode_id": "4bb94d798ca5869bc21f657f521841a043cf0d6de355564508df549f506e2818",
      "evidence": [
        {
          "id": "memory_87ed47ceb3c727a7a50e",
          "kind": "initial_self_facts",
          "month": 0,
          "person_id": "person_00297b1b456e296af28d",
          "sequence": 0,
          "text": "At the initial snapshot I am 33 years old and live in County 0, State 0. My education category is advanced. I have an active job."
        },
        {
          "id": "memory_95434c967f1e2df00625",
          "kind": "initial_self_facts",
          "month": 0,
          "person_id": "person_0050286ae50029dd112e",
          "sequence": 0,
          "text": "At the initial snapshot I am 15 years old and live in County 9, State 1. My education category is none or primary. I have no active job."
        },
        {
          "id": "memory_9a92b0ad37b7461c998d",
          "kind": "initial_self_facts",
          "month": 0,
          "person_id": "person_01c19734cb5d1ee35305",
          "sequence": 0,
          "text": "At the initial snapshot I am 9 years old and live in County 1, State 1. My education category is none or primary. I have no active job."
        },
        {
          "id": "memory_e388ed10664fb26d3ff6",
          "kind": "initial_self_facts",
          "month": 0,
          "person_id": "person_4673ec7b358c1d6eebd8",
          "sequence": 0,
          "text": "At the initial snapshot I am 50 years old and live in County 0, State 0. My education category is advanced. I have no active job."
        },
        {
          "id": "memory_bb3b815a5b95a198a594",
          "kind": "residence_move",
          "month": 4,
          "person_id": "person_4673ec7b358c1d6eebd8",
          "sequence": 1,
          "text": "My household moved to County 9, State 1."
        },
        {
          "id": "memory_888af9eb9d66d75405c6",
          "kind": "hospital_admission",
          "month": 4,
          "person_id": "person_4673ec7b358c1d6eebd8",
          "sequence": 2,
          "text": "I was admitted to hospital."
        },
        {
          "id": "memory_79151ab10bcdbdc5ddcf",
          "kind": "hospital_discharge",
          "month": 4,
          "person_id": "person_4673ec7b358c1d6eebd8",
          "sequence": 3,
          "text": "I left hospital."
        },
        {
          "id": "memory_e7f0f831d55e43c844a4",
          "kind": "job_start",
          "month": 8,
          "person_id": "person_4673ec7b358c1d6eebd8",
          "sequence": 4,
          "text": "I started a part-time job."
        }
      ],
      "instructions": "Development-only factual-history task. Answer for target_id as of cutoff_month. Replay each person's records in sequence order, including same-month ties. For each field cite exactly one memory id: its latest assigning observation; use initial_self_facts if unchanged. County changes on residence_move or household_formation; employment changes on job_start or job_end. These are declared synthetic observations, not validated cognition.",
      "person_ids": [
        "person_00297b1b456e296af28d",
        "person_0050286ae50029dd112e",
        "person_01c19734cb5d1ee35305",
        "person_4673ec7b358c1d6eebd8"
      ],
      "questions": [
        {
          "allowed_values": {
            "minimum": 0,
            "type": "integer"
          },
          "field": "county",
          "id": "4bb94d798ca5869bc21f657f521841a043cf0d6de355564508df549f506e2818:county",
          "prompt": "What is the target resident's county as of cutoff_month?"
        },
        {
          "allowed_values": {
            "enum": [
              "employed",
              "no_active_job"
            ]
          },
          "field": "employment_status",
          "id": "4bb94d798ca5869bc21f657f521841a043cf0d6de355564508df549f506e2818:employment_status",
          "prompt": "What is the target resident's employment status as of cutoff_month?"
        }
      ],
      "schema": "meridia.evidence-task.v1",
      "target_id": "person_4673ec7b358c1d6eebd8"
    },
    "packet_file": "evidence-packet.json",
    "recorded_controls": [
      {
        "deterministic": true,
        "id": "reference",
        "label": "Deterministic evidence replay",
        "score": {
          "answer_accuracy": 1.0,
          "development_only": true,
          "episode_id": "4bb94d798ca5869bc21f657f521841a043cf0d6de355564508df549f506e2818",
          "evidence_correctness": 1.0,
          "question_count": 2,
          "question_results": [
            {
              "answer_correct": true,
              "evidence_correct": true,
              "question_id": "4bb94d798ca5869bc21f657f521841a043cf0d6de355564508df549f506e2818:county"
            },
            {
              "answer_correct": true,
              "evidence_correct": true,
              "question_id": "4bb94d798ca5869bc21f657f521841a043cf0d6de355564508df549f506e2818:employment_status"
            }
          ]
        },
        "submission": {
          "answers": [
            {
              "evidence_ids": [
                "memory_bb3b815a5b95a198a594"
              ],
              "question_id": "4bb94d798ca5869bc21f657f521841a043cf0d6de355564508df549f506e2818:county",
              "value": 9
            },
            {
              "evidence_ids": [
                "memory_e7f0f831d55e43c844a4"
              ],
              "question_id": "4bb94d798ca5869bc21f657f521841a043cf0d6de355564508df549f506e2818:employment_status",
              "value": "employed"
            }
          ],
          "episode_id": "4bb94d798ca5869bc21f657f521841a043cf0d6de355564508df549f506e2818"
        }
      },
      {
        "deterministic": true,
        "id": "stale",
        "label": "Deterministic initial-memory-only control",
        "score": {
          "answer_accuracy": 0.0,
          "development_only": true,
          "episode_id": "4bb94d798ca5869bc21f657f521841a043cf0d6de355564508df549f506e2818",
          "evidence_correctness": 0.0,
          "question_count": 2,
          "question_results": [
            {
              "answer_correct": false,
              "evidence_correct": false,
              "question_id": "4bb94d798ca5869bc21f657f521841a043cf0d6de355564508df549f506e2818:county"
            },
            {
              "answer_correct": false,
              "evidence_correct": false,
              "question_id": "4bb94d798ca5869bc21f657f521841a043cf0d6de355564508df549f506e2818:employment_status"
            }
          ]
        },
        "submission": {
          "answers": [
            {
              "evidence_ids": [
                "memory_e388ed10664fb26d3ff6"
              ],
              "question_id": "4bb94d798ca5869bc21f657f521841a043cf0d6de355564508df549f506e2818:county",
              "value": 0
            },
            {
              "evidence_ids": [
                "memory_e388ed10664fb26d3ff6"
              ],
              "question_id": "4bb94d798ca5869bc21f657f521841a043cf0d6de355564508df549f506e2818:employment_status",
              "value": "no_active_job"
            }
          ],
          "episode_id": "4bb94d798ca5869bc21f657f521841a043cf0d6de355564508df549f506e2818"
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  "label": "Recorded open development example; deterministic replay, no live model.",
  "limitations": [
    "All months are intentionally browsable in this public example; it is not a held-out evaluation.",
    "Method results describe one generated country, not general superiority or real-world validity.",
    "Structural checks are separate from statistical errors; no scientific pass threshold was applied.",
    "County coverage is descriptive within one world, not repeated-sampling calibration.",
    "Resident views are declared synthetic observations, not validated cognition or generated diaries.",
    "Saved evidence outcomes come from deterministic reference and stale controls, not an LLM trial."
  ],
  "live_model": false,
  "map": {
    "file": "map.png",
    "label": "Recorded initial population density and administrative boundaries"
  },
  "methods": [
    {
      "checks_pass": true,
      "counties": [
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          "county": 0,
          "population_error_pct": -0.32743154289014015,
          "population_estimate": 9113.062934033554,
          "population_lower": 7395.32232883815,
          "population_truth": 9143.0,
          "population_upper": 10830.80353922896,
          "state": 0
        },
        {
          "county": 1,
          "population_error_pct": 6.022515493297499,
          "population_estimate": 3639.752956884903,
          "population_lower": 2921.7734113005995,
          "population_truth": 3433.0,
          "population_upper": 4357.732502469207,
          "state": 1
        },
        {
          "county": 2,
          "population_error_pct": 4.740222774544579,
          "population_estimate": 2442.5419951023796,
          "population_lower": 1955.7529512963051,
          "population_truth": 2332.0,
          "population_upper": 2929.331038908454,
          "state": 1
        },
        {
          "county": 3,
          "population_error_pct": 3.61322040900534,
          "population_estimate": 2025.6384589960544,
          "population_lower": 1603.7874228476403,
          "population_truth": 1955.0,
          "population_upper": 2447.4894951444685,
          "state": 1
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        {
          "county": 4,
          "population_error_pct": 5.753407356543058,
          "population_estimate": 3157.7967436663757,
          "population_lower": 2476.568477117851,
          "population_truth": 2986.0,
          "population_upper": 3839.0250102149,
          "state": 1
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        {
          "county": 5,
          "population_error_pct": 5.339140439886485,
          "population_estimate": 958.586178002967,
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          "population_truth": 910.0,
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          "population_truth": 981.0,
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          "population_estimate": 366.5431862541791,
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          "population_truth": 390.0,
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          "population_truth": 2339.0,
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        {
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          "population_truth": 100.0,
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        {
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          "population_upper": 4645.510323594484,
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        {
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          "population_estimate": 840.0720168755834,
          "population_lower": 668.0011018620662,
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        {
          "county": 15,
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          "population_truth": 1275.0,
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      ],
      "id": "bayesian",
      "label": "Bayesian reference",
      "seconds": 1.2286994592286646,
      "summary": {
        "county_income_mape": 10.811668267291981,
        "county_population_coverage": 100.0,
        "county_population_mape": 7.981946540972057
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    },
    {
      "checks_pass": true,
      "counties": [
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          "population_truth": 1519.0,
          "population_upper": 1241.4032748776508,
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          "population_truth": 934.0,
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        {
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          "population_truth": 1275.0,
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      ],
      "id": "register_only",
      "label": "Register-only baseline",
      "seconds": 0.1268512918613851,
      "summary": {
        "county_income_mape": 9.97044005202663,
        "county_population_coverage": 0.0,
        "county_population_mape": 13.013432566417107
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  "metric_scope": {
    "county_weighting": "equal",
    "coverage": {
      "bounds": "inclusive",
      "repeated_sampling_calibration": false,
      "scale": 100
    },
    "finite_truth_only": true,
    "income": {
      "estimand": "mean_income_adults",
      "minimum_age_years": 16,
      "within_county_aggregation": "arithmetic_mean"
    },
    "level": "county",
    "month": 6,
    "percentage_error": {
      "county_rows": "signed",
      "denominator": "max(abs(truth), 1)",
      "scale": 100,
      "summary": "mean_absolute"
    },
    "population_estimand": "persons",
    "snapshot": "revised"
  },
  "recorded": true,
  "recorded_at": "2026-09-27T22:11:30.537189+00:00",
  "run_id": "c61a6a1073ad45e8bbe70ae48ffb182e",
  "schema": "meridia.recorded-demo.v1",
  "seed": 4711,
  "stories": [
    {
      "label": "Resident 4673EC7B",
      "person_id": "person_4673ec7b358c1d6eebd8",
      "views": [
        {
          "memories": [
            {
              "evidence_ids": [
                "initial_bc16820e9d4ae42cd964"
              ],
              "id": "memory_e388ed10664fb26d3ff6",
              "kind": "initial_self_facts",
              "month": 0,
              "observation_rule": "synthetic_initial_self_knowledge",
              "text": "At the initial snapshot I am 50 years old and live in County 0, State 0. My education category is advanced. I have no active job."
            }
          ],
          "month": 0,
          "person": {
            "age": 50,
            "alive": true,
            "county": 0,
            "education": "advanced",
            "employment": {
              "job_id": null,
              "status": "no_active_job",
              "type": null
            },
            "household_id": "household_84fdba096b65bbe073d5",
            "id": "person_4673ec7b358c1d6eebd8",
            "label": "Resident 4673EC7B",
            "state": 0
          },
          "projection_label": "Declared knowledge projection; not validated cognition.",
          "schema": "meridia.residents.v1"
        },
        {
          "memories": [
            {
              "evidence_ids": [
                "initial_bc16820e9d4ae42cd964"
              ],
              "id": "memory_e388ed10664fb26d3ff6",
              "kind": "initial_self_facts",
              "month": 0,
              "observation_rule": "synthetic_initial_self_knowledge",
              "text": "At the initial snapshot I am 50 years old and live in County 0, State 0. My education category is advanced. I have no active job."
            }
          ],
          "month": 1,
          "person": {
            "age": 50,
            "alive": true,
            "county": 0,
            "education": "advanced",
            "employment": {
              "job_id": null,
              "status": "no_active_job",
              "type": null
            },
            "household_id": "household_84fdba096b65bbe073d5",
            "id": "person_4673ec7b358c1d6eebd8",
            "label": "Resident 4673EC7B",
            "state": 0
          },
          "projection_label": "Declared knowledge projection; not validated cognition.",
          "schema": "meridia.residents.v1"
        },
        {
          "memories": [
            {
              "evidence_ids": [
                "initial_bc16820e9d4ae42cd964"
              ],
              "id": "memory_e388ed10664fb26d3ff6",
              "kind": "initial_self_facts",
              "month": 0,
              "observation_rule": "synthetic_initial_self_knowledge",
              "text": "At the initial snapshot I am 50 years old and live in County 0, State 0. My education category is advanced. I have no active job."
            }
          ],
          "month": 2,
          "person": {
            "age": 50,
            "alive": true,
            "county": 0,
            "education": "advanced",
            "employment": {
              "job_id": null,
              "status": "no_active_job",
              "type": null
            },
            "household_id": "household_84fdba096b65bbe073d5",
            "id": "person_4673ec7b358c1d6eebd8",
            "label": "Resident 4673EC7B",
            "state": 0
          },
          "projection_label": "Declared knowledge projection; not validated cognition.",
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